India Meteorological Department (IMD) has recently adopted a new strategy using Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) based forecasting system for issuing monthly and seasonal outlooks of rainfall and temperature over the country. The MME approach uses the coupled global climate models (CGCMs) from different global climate prediction and research centers including Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System (MMCFS) model used by IMD for seasonal forecast. IMD has prepared a seasonal outlook for temperatures for the upcoming Winter Season (December 2025 to February 2026), including an outlook for cold waves. Seasonal Temperature Forecast for December 2025 to February 2026 The probability forecast during December 2025 to February 2026 (DJF 2025/26) season for the minimum and maximum temperatures, respectively indicates that during the upcoming winter season (December 2025 to February 2026), normal to below-normal minimum temperatures are likely over most parts of central India and adjoining peninsular and Northwest India. Above normal minimum temperatures are likely over the remaining parts of the country. During the the season, maximum temperatures are expected to be normal to below normal across most parts of the country. However, some regions, including parts of Northwest India, Northeast India, and areas along the foothills of the Himalayas, are likely to experience above-normal maximum temperatures. Cold wave outlook for the Dec. 2025 - Feb. 2026 Season The above normal cold wave days are likely over parts of central India, as well as some regions in northwest and northeast India during the upcoming winter season (December 2025 to February 2026).Above-normal cold wave conditions may increase health risks for vulnerable groups, including senior citizens, children, and individuals with underlying medical conditions. Early-morning fog could reduce visibility and disrupt road, rail, and air transportation, while stagnant atmospheric conditions may further deteriorate air quality in some urban areas. A rise in heating demand is also anticipated. Weather-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, horticulture, and daily-wage labour-may face operational challenges during extended cold spells. Authorities are advised to maintain heightened preparedness, and the public should adopt essential safety measures and follow local advisories. Both the public and concerned agencies are encouraged to regularly monitor the Impact-Based Forecast (IBF) issued through IMD's daily early-warning services for timely updates. Source : IMD