Probabilistic Forecast for the Temperature during October 2026 In October, above-normal maximum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country except some regions of the northeast India and isolated pockets of central and northwest India where normal maximum temperatures are expected. During October, above normal minimum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country except in most parts of Northeast India where normal to below normal minimum temperatures are likely. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Strong El Niño conditions are currently prevailing over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, characterized by significantly above-average sea surface temperatures, particularly across the eastcentral and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. Forecasts from the Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System (MMCFS), along with those from other major global climate models, indicate that El Niño will continue to strengthen through the end of the year. Neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are currently prevailing over the Indian Ocean. The latest forecast from the Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System (MMCFS) indicates that neutral IOD conditions are most likely to persist during the NE monsoon season. Probabilistic Forecast for the Rainfall during October 2026 The rainfall averaged over the country as a whole during October 2026 is likely to be below normal (< 85 % of LPA). The LPA of rainfall over the country during the month of October based on data of 1971 to 2020 is about 75.4 mm. The Forecast suggests that most parts of the country are expected to receive below-normal rainfall except, some areas in Northwest India, southern parts of peninsular India and isolated areas of the East India, which may experience normal to above normal rainfall. Source : IMD