Probabilistic Forecast for the Temperature during July 2026 During July 2026, maximum temperatures are expected to remain above normal across most parts of India except a few isolated areas in West central India where normal to below-normal maximum temperatures are likely. The minimum temperatures are also expected to be above normal over most regions of the country except some isolated pockets of Central and Northeast India where normal minimum temperatures are likely. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Weak El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are currently prevailing over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The latest forecasts from the Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) and other global climate models indicate that these conditions are likely to strengthen further during the Southwest Monsoon season. Currently, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are being observed over the Indian Ocean. The model forecast indicates that neutral IOD conditions are likely to persist during the Southwest Monsoon season. Probabilistic Forecast for the Rainfall during July 2026 Monthly average rainfall over the country as a whole during July 2026 is most likely to be below normal (<94 % of long period average (LPA)). The LPA of rainfall over the country as a whole during July, based on data from 1971-2020, is about 280.4 mm. Regionally, below-normal rainfall is likely across most parts of the country except some areas of Northwest and Northeast India, Eastcentral India and the eastern peninsular region where normal to above-normal rainfall is likely Source : IMD