Probabilistic Forecast for the Temperature during February 2026 The probability forecast for minimum temperature indicates that during February 2026, minimum temperatures are likely to be above normal over most parts of the country, except some regions of South Peninsular India where normal minimum temperatures are expected. The probability forecast for maximum temperature indicates that during February 2026, above normal maximum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country except some isolated regions in the Central India and the southern parts of peninsular India, where normal maximum temperatures are likely. Cold wave outlook for the February 2026 Cold wave days over most parts of the country are expected to remain within the normal range. However, below normal cold wave days are likely over several parts of Northwest and adjoining central India. Probabilistic Forecast for the Rainfall during February 2026 Monthly rainfall during February 2026 over Northwest India consisting of seven meteorological subdivisions (East Uttar Pradesh, West Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, and Ladakh) is most likely to be below normal (<78 % of Long Period Average (LPA)). The LPA of rainfall over Northwest India and the country as a whole during February based on data from 1971-2020 is 65.0 mm and 22.7 mm, respectively. Monthly rainfall over the country as a whole during February 2026 is most likely to be below normal (<81 % of LPA). Below-normal rainfall is likely over most parts of the country, except some areas of Northwest and Eastcentral India, and extreme southern parts of Northeast India, where normal to above-normal rainfall is likely. Likely Impact of Above-normal Temperatures on Agriculture in February 2026 Above-normal temperatures may accelerate crop growth and shorten the crop duration of rabi crops, particularly in Northwest, and Central India. Crops like wheat and barley may experience forced maturity, leading to sterile spikelets and chaffy grains, resulting in yield reduction. Oilseeds and pulses such as mustard, chickpea, lentil, and field pea may show early flowering and premature maturity, resulting in poor pod development, reduced seed size, and lower yields. Warmer conditions may also favour rapid multiplication of aphids and other sucking pests. Vegetable crops such as potato, onion, garlic, tomato, cauliflower, cabbage, and peas may be adversely affected during critical stages like tuber initiation, bulb development, flowering, and fruit setting. Elevated temperatures can induce bolting in onion and garlic, reduce tuber bulking in potato, because flower drop in tomato, and deteriorate cole crops, thereby lowering yield and market value. Horticultural crops such as mango, citrus, banana, and grapes may experience early flowering, uneven fruit set and increased fruit drop. Above-normal temperatures may also reduce chilling accumulation in temperate fruits like apple, pear and peach, leading to irregular flowering and poor fruit development. Livestock and poultry may experience heat stress, resulting in reduced feed intake, decline in milk yield and egg production, and increased susceptibility to diseases if adequate cooling and hydration measures are not adopted. Agromet Advisories for February 2026 Provide light and frequent irrigation to standing crops at critical growth stages like flowering, grain filling, and tuber development to mitigate heat stress and maintain optimum soil moisture. Apply mulching to conserve soil moisture, suppress weeds around the crop root zone. Apply foliar spray of potassium nitrate or other anti-transpirants to help crops to manage heat stress. Regularly monitor crops for increased incidence of insect-pests such as aphids, thrips and whiteflies. Ensure adequate drinking water, shade, and proper ventilation for livestock. Source : IMD